Founding Partner and Chief Analyst
For over 25 years, Vaughn Cordle, CFA has been an analyst and consultant to various institutional investors, money management firms, suppliers, and labor groups. He founded AirlineForecasts LLC and Ionosphere Capital LLC, where he manages airline and transportation-related investment research with a small team of analysts and researchers. Clients include Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fuji Heavy Industries, Southwest, and WestJet pilot groups and over 50 large and small equity and debt funds.
Vaughn attended executive education programs at Kellogg, Wharton, and other business schools, earning a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 2003. A leading airline industry expert, his media interviews include Fox business news, CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg TV and Radio, and other business news networks. The author or co-author of several papers and reports on airline deregulation, consolidation, and mergers, Vaughn has given briefings, presentations and testimonies to the DOT, White House, FAA, American Bar Association, and other groups.
Vaughn has 40 years of experience as a pilot and instructor in the airline industry. A retired senior B787 captain with United Airlines, he spent 35 years (28 as captain) flying out of Washington, DC. After its purchase of Pan American World Airways in the late 80s, he flew the inaugural Paris, London, and Frankfurt flights for United Airlines.
Vaughn is an Airline Transport Pilot with the following ratings, licenses, and awards: LRJET, CE500, A320, B727, B737, B747, B757, B767, B777, B787. He is a CFII/MEI/Gold Seal Instructor and flight engineer with 36 World and National speed records certified by the National Aeronautic Association and Federation Aeronautique Internationale.
Vaughn was selected as the X Prize pilot for the first civilian company to carry passengers into low-earth orbit. Designed for satellite deployment—with a side project that included controls for a pilot and two seats for civilian passengers—the launch system was developed by NASA engineers and scientists that managed the Challenger flights. The project was later canceled due to funding issues.
Vaughn has given numerous media interviews and in 1998 appeared on the David Letterman Show.
BloomBerg / CNBC / FoxBusiness
Testimonials and Feedback:
"Perfectly stated, Vaughn." Jeff Ferris, Financial Services Management Professional
"I thoroughly enjoy reading your economics posts.You add real value!" Dr. Gerry Young, MPM
“BRILLIANT. This was perfectly summarized Vaughn Cordle, CFA and the truth is deafening.” Michael Barrick, Founder, Board Director
"Vaughn. Love your posts. You are one of the most sensible and informed people on this platform." Mike Markovitz, Founder and former president of RAM International
"Mr. Vaughn Cordle: Excellent! THANK YOU for your post." Patrick Halton, 32 years/Colonel, USMC (Ret)
"Your nickname should be "Spot on Vaughn." Couldn't agree more, and well stated." Owen Jellison, Senior Manager New Product Introduction and Acceleration at SAWVC
"An outstanding summary, Vaughn." John S Villanova, General Manager & Controller at Sunland Trading
"Vaughn- Thank you a superb and thoughtful article."Maxine Pierson, CEO/MJBIOTECH,INC.
"Thank you sir....well said." MIke Castro, MAC Investigations/Consultant-Physical Protection
"Vaughn, once again you have eloquently written about what is happening." Craig Graul, Physician
"Spot on, once again" Russell Minchew
"Excellent article...I wish I could share it." Teresa Schifano, President at Priority One Title Agency, Inc.
"Excellent analysis. If people would read and understand reports such as this...we might be able to fix this mess." Mary Clark McBurney
"Well said and precisely defined." , David H. Dickey, Justice Warrior
"Very true, better wake up America." Steven Ybarra, CIC Certified Insurance Counselor
“Excellent article Vaughn” Darren J. Vigil CIEC ATP, Founder at Healthy Exposure, Inc.
"Excellent post. All true." Raewyn Knight, Records, Enrollment & Fees Manager
"Incredibly well spoken and true." John Edward Flynt, FF/Paramedic Lt.; VietnamVet; Award-winning Screenwriter; Novelist; Composer
“Brilliant essay on the ideological divide: Politics in the age of Covid-19.” John Moloney, Transportation Policy at The Boeing Company
“An interesting mathematical counterpoint to the necessity of quarantine. I know lots of business owners who have done this kind of math intuitively; here’s a CFA who presents his math explicitly.” Parker Poe Adams & Bernstein LLP
“Some hard numbers, and hard truths.” Greg Lowhorn, PhD, MBA Program & Vice Chair-Pensacola Christian College
“Some truly amazing research…wow!!” Traci L Clemente EMD Certified
"I truly enjoy your comments and contributions. Too many know little about economics, finance or statistics." Fred Lazar, Co-Founder at CC Airport Advertising / Harvard PH.D
"I’ve been reading your posts and articles for quite some time and wanted to relay that I appreciate both their content, and your willingness to continue to put them forward in the face of nasty attacks rooted in romantic idealism." Sametta Barnett, Delta DC office
“This is another great post for consideration by anyone in a medical or political leadership role on balancing demands during significant health related threats.” Charles Krin Retired at Apollo C&CR
“Quite a read for anywhere in the world to consider” Douglas Blair General Manager European Motor Distributors
"I thoroughly enjoy and learn from your writings. I am better informed and make better decisions, as a result. I deal with a lot of high-caliber folks in the aviation and travel space and observe that you are among the very best." Don Garvett
“You nailed it again Vaughn.” Mark Bobbi
“Excellent piece! Rational observations lead to rational measures. Nicely done Vaughn!” Donald McGregor, United States Air Force, Maj Gen (ret)
"Stunning analysis from someone who "...founded AirlineForecasts, LLC and Ionosphere Capital, LLC and has managed airline and transportation-related investment research." Joshua Robinson Team Manager, North America Last Mile Transportation @ Amazon.com
“A must read. Great write-up.” Martin Nielsen Executive Protection Operations & Executive Projects Director at AS Solution
“Vaughn, many thanks for all your brilliant and informative articles. Clear, researched, concise and one can see your intellectual strength.” Peet Vermeulen, Johannesburg, South Africa
"Vaughn, thank you for providing a source of information that is reliable and thorough. Without facts, good forecasting and critical thinking we will be left with hyperbole, speculation, and fear-based conclusions." Gordon Andrews, BSc., FRAeS Principal at Argo Navis Aviation
"Vaughn, Excellent analysis and commentary." David Wardell, TechReality
"One of the most intelligent articles I have ever read on LinkedIn." Leigh Kimball
"Vaughn, Analyses like this one is why you are considered among the best analysts and thinkers in the business. Thanks for your timely insights." Kevin Mitchell, Business Travel Coalition
"Vaughn, Excellent analysis, as always. Concise, on target, good evidence. I couldn’t have asked for better early-morning reading." David J. Wardell, President, Technical Reality
"Vaughn – Your thoughtful approach and experience on these issues is so valuable. Thanks for sharing the ongoing dialogue on this. We can certainly learn much from you and your outside perspective so keep it coming." Greta Lundeberg, VP Strategy Boeing
"Vaughn is a thoughtful airline analyst who can provide perspective not only on the history of the industry, but also closely monitors the industry today, with an intimate knowledge of all players. His analysis is unique and thoughtful and has aided us in our decision-making process. His identification of key trends, thorough research and monitoring of all players, data driven analysis, and views on the future of the industry have proven invaluable. I highly support and recommend using Vaughn in a consulting capacity." Bharat Kuncham, Monarch Capital LP
"I have known Vaughn Cordle for eight years and have found him to be an excellent analyst of the airline industry, providing unique and innovative insights. He backs up his work with detailed research and financial analysis, not relying as many do on conventional wisdom or the work of others. I was so impressed with his work that I invited him to the annual airports economics meeting where he effectively engaged his audience and provided them with perspectives they rarely hear (attendees rated him very highly). I might add that I don't always agree with his perspectives, but that is normally due to the fact that I work for airports and there is a natural degree between airports and airlines in the course of doing business or with policy work. I recommend him very highly." Speaker and Analyst / Year first hired: 2005 / Top Qualities: Great Results, Expert, Creative / Stephen Van Beek Executive Director Policy and Strategy, LeighFisher
"Vaughn is one of the US' best aviation analysts, uses data effectively and sees the industry clearly thanks to his extensive background in airlines. Definitely an opinion leader." Peter Harbison, Owner, CAPA, Centre for Aviation
"Vaughn really understands airline industry dynamics. He's one of the top analysts, and an essential go-to resource for assessing competitiveness, economics, and the industry's structure. He's also great at putting numbers and trends in an understandable context." Richard Aboulafia , Vice President, Teal Group Corporation"
“I have known and worked with Vaughn for over 10 years. His background as an airline pilot and his training as a business and securities analyst enable him to have a unique perspective and understanding of the airline industry and transportation in general. Vaughn has key relationships with people in the airline industry, government, and the investment industry, and the analytic capabilities to offer valuable insights." Richard LeBuhn, Senior Vice President of Broadwood Capital, Inc
"I've found Vaughn's analysis of data in the airline financial sectors to be constructive, accurate, and focused. Perhaps more important, he understands the fundamentals of the business sector." Richard Eastman, President at The Eastman Group, Inc.
"Vaughn has demonstrated a compelling coverage of the airline industry's financials. He is, in my view, an industry expert." Addison Schonland, Consultant at Allegiant Systems"
Vaughn Cordle is a preeminent airline and aviation financial analyst. He is a frequent speaker and guest on many television programs and other symposiums. His client list goes on and on, with many large airlines on this list. In addition, Vaughn is an outstanding economist. His data base and use of it is outstanding. While he can't predict tomorrow, Vaughn has his pulse on the industry and how it relates to the economy. And, he is not desk-bound, being a highly rated commercial pilot himself. Drawbacks? Very few if any; however, Vaughn will tell you directly if you are wrong and, as he "knows his stuff" can be dismissive of not-well-thought out plans. But at the same time Vaughn always has time to discuss industry problems and share points of view. He is widely respected in the airline business and can be counted on to produce a respected product." Jack Keady, Principal, Transportation Consulting
"Vaughn provides an insider knowledge of the industry with a creative approach to analyzing airline data." Glenn Engel, Managing Director at Merrill Lynch
"Vaughn is a outstanding analyst and especially special analyst that really understands the airlines. Very few analysts understand the management and financial powers at the airlines like Vaughn does." Julius Maldutis (Dr. J), Independent Airline/Aviation Professional"
Vaughn Cordle is an in-depth consultant with an ability to both pan in at the detailed level, and aggregate to macro- time series. He has built a well-deserved reputation for comprehensive financial modeling. In the work I did for him, he was impressively open to new ways of looking at certain issues, within his rigorous overall framework." Craig Jenks, President, Airline/Aircraft Projects Inc.
"Wow, Vaughn is like Gordon Gekko (except straight)...he is one sharp guy. Vaughn has that tenacity that is rarely learned. He has done a phenomenal job of maximizing his abilities and being the best in his field." Ross Barnette, Central Bank
"Vaughn's interview may be one of the most fascinating podcasts we have done since we started in 2006." Addison Schonland, Innovation Analysis Group (IAG)
"Vaughn, I have seen your paper, and it’s brilliant as expected." Doug Abbey"
"Vaughn, thank you for an excellent presentation today. The various merger scenarios you posed provided an excellent update on the financial and operational implications of the different unions. In addition, your valuation discussion of the different airlines helped round out your comprehensive overview of the current state of affairs. Your ability to explain the major issues in a concise manner and provide news on the latest developments is invaluable to our Buy Side clientele." Chuck Brady, Colman Research
"Vaughn spots emerging trends others miss making his economic analysis of the airline industry unbeatable. Few analysts can match his experience in the cockpit piloting wide body jetliners for a major air carrier. This background gives him a leg up on the competition when it comes to understanding the industry." Mark W Tatge, Bureau Chief and Senior Editor at Forbes
"I have known Vaughn Cordle for over 12 years and have worked with him in various capacities. I respect the excellent work Vaughn provides and his one of a kind perspective. He is a first-rate airline analyst who provides an independent view which is timely and refreshing. Vaughn’s combination of industry experience and analyst skill set, give him an excellent understanding of the commercial airline industry." Ralph Casciano, President & CEO, The AMI Group, LLC
"Congrats on another brilliant analysis. I really value reading your analyses." Jack Fearnsides, MJF Strategies"
I have known Vaughn Cordle for nearly a decade and have worked with him on various reports and studies. While we do not always agree on every issue, I have the deepest respect for Vaughn’s analytical prowess. He attacks data with a vengeance and his insatiable passion for his work allows him to sum up the smallest of data points into high predictive insights at the firm and industry levels, always informed by a mastery of macroeconomic theory and current data trends. What’s so impressive are the various econometric models Vaughn’s firm has built over time that allow them to move seamlessly from industry to industry. Vaughn is a highly sought after speaker and media commentator and has become the go-to-expert and thought-leader for numerous government agencies facing complex policy choices." Kevin Mitchell, Chairman, Business Travel Coalition
"Vaughn Cordle is one of the most thoughtful, articulate, savvy travel industry financial analysts in the business today. He brings a unique perspective to his work by blending his hands-on industry experience with strong financial acumen. I always value Mr. Cordle's insights into the many issues facing the travel industry. I would hire him in a New York minute." Michael Derchin, Airline/Aerospace Analyst, FTN Midwest Securities
"Vaughn Cordle is a rare example of an expert number-cruncher who also possesses detailed, hands-on knowledge of the field about which he makes forecasts. The combination of his decades of airline pilot experience and excellent analytical skills makes Vaughn hard to top. I have enjoyed working with him on policy research projects pertaining to several aspects of U.S. aviation policy." Robert W. Poole, Jr., Director of Transportation Policy, Reason Foundation
"Vaughn is one of the finest aviation forecasters in the business. He has a rare combination of deep industry work experience, combined with the professional skills of a CFA. His industry savvy gives him an edge over his colleagues and his financial analysis is both dead accurate while generating unique, creative insights about companies and markets. Vaughn is at the top of my list for forecasting, valuation, risk analysis and strategic and M&A assessment." Matt Andersson, President, Indigo Aerospace
"Vaughn is not only an excellent airline analyst but also has a keen understanding of the general aviation industry. We have worked together on several projects. I highly recommend him." Jim Haynes, President & CEO, The Aviation Group
"We are very happy that we hired Vaughn Cordle to help us understand the small jet market and to assist our team in strategy formulation." Keisuke Kamo, Chief of Staff, CEO's Office, Fuji Heavy Industries
"Vaughn Cordle knows the airline business well. He has deep industry experience which combines nicely with his financial and forecasting skills. Vaughn communicates effectively, and is a welcome and knowledgeable contributor to the ongoing debate about how to fix our diminished airline industry." R. L. Crandall, Retired Chairman and Chief Executive, AMR and American Airlines
"Vaughn, you and your team are to be commended for the consistent quality of your analysis." Glenn Tilton, Chairman and Chief Executive, United Airlines
"Vaughn Cordle is a well-reasoned industry veteran and his comments invariably reflect informed points of view." -- Gerald W. Bernstein, Founding Partner, The Velocity Group